Based on: Rates, Renos, and a Market on Edge — Fall 2025 (UrbanDigs)
Fall 2025: Luxury homes stay hot while the rest of the market takes a breather
The latest UrbanDigs report paints a clear picture: New York City’s real estate market is split in two. Luxury homes are still selling well, mostly to all-cash buyers. But the rest of the market, where most people depend on mortgages, is slowing down. With mortgage rates still in the mid-6% range and more listings starting to appear, this fall could tip in either direction.
Quick summary:
- Fall is slower than spring: Manhattan usually sees around 3,387 fall sales versus 4,751 in spring — about 40% fewer deals.
- Luxury homes rule: Homes priced above $4M are moving faster than the rest of the market.
- The next 6–8 weeks matter most: Watch inventory, interest rates, and October contract activity.
1. Fall is a smaller, tougher season
What the data shows: Over the last five years, Manhattan’s fall sales average 3,387 closings, while spring averages 4,751 — that’s a 40% drop.
What it means: With fewer buyers around, listings need to stand out. Each good apartment gets more attention, but those priced too high are likely to sit.
Tip: Sellers should list at realistic prices and make sure their homes are staged and photo-ready.
2. Luxury homes keep selling — others slow down
What the data shows: Since mid-2023, luxury homes ($4M+) have sold well, mostly to buyers paying cash. Meanwhile, the rest of the market has lagged for three years.
What it means: Cash buyers don’t care much about mortgage rates. That gives luxury homes an edge. Mid-market homes, where buyers need financing, are feeling the pressure.
Tip: If you’re selling below $4M, highlight upgrades and be open to negotiating. If you’re selling above $4M, emphasize move-in readiness and quality.
3. Renovated homes sell faster
What the data shows: Updated and well-staged homes are getting more offers. Units that need work are taking longer to sell.
What it means: Buyers are being picky. In a market with high rates, they want homes that don’t need more investment.
Tip: Small improvements — fresh paint, lighting, decluttering — can make a big difference.
4. Inventory is rising, but balance remains fragile
What the data shows: Listings are increasing, especially for homes under $4M. But supply hasn’t yet reached levels that clearly favor buyers.
What it means: If more listings hit without enough buyers, prices could start to soften later this fall.
Tip: Sellers should price competitively. Buyers should be ready to move quickly if they spot a good deal.
What to watch next
- Inventory: Will new listings keep rising or slow down?
- Contracts: October activity will reveal if buyers are coming back.
- Confidence: Political and economic news can sway buyers fast.
Final Thoughts
Fall 2025 is a season of waiting and watching. The luxury market remains steady, but most buyers are holding out for better rates or more realistic prices. The next few weeks will show whether NYC ends the year quietly or with a late surge.
In short: Stay flexible, price smart, and keep an eye on interest rates.
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